Report Dashboard

ELOG Report Intelligence • 2017

Citizens’ Independent Audit on the Quality of the 2017 Register of Voters

This dashboard presents ELOG’s Citizens’ Independent Audit on the Quality of the 2017 Register of Voters, titled “In Their Own Voices.” The assessment examined the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and integrity of the Register of Voters used for the 8 August 2017 General Elections in Kenya. ELOG used two complementary methodologies: computer logical tests on the electronic Register of Voters and a statistically rigorous People-to-List field survey. The computer analysis reviewed 19,611,423 voter records contained in the register dated 28 June 2017, while the field survey drew a representative sample of 2,280 respondents from all 47 counties, with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2%. The assessment found that the National Voter Registration Rate for the 2017 General Elections ranged between 77% and 78%, representing an improvement from the 68% rate recorded in 2013. However, it also found that approximately 22% to 23% of eligible and qualified citizens were not registered as voters, pointing to continued challenges of voter apathy, public trust, voter education and participation. The report further identified slow progress in diaspora voter registration. Although diaspora registration increased from 2,637 voters in 2013 to 4,393 voters in 2017, coverage remained very low at approximately 0.2% over seven years, despite constitutional provisions for progressive realization of voting rights for citizens residing outside Kenya. The assessment also examined gender, youth and diaspora registration trends, errors in voter records, inspection of the register, sources of voter registration information, and institutional data-sharing challenges affecting the maintenance of a credible register. It highlighted the need for stronger collaboration between IEBC and other government agencies, improved death registration data, better validation controls in biometric voter registration systems, and continuous voter education. Overall, ELOG found that the 2017 Register of Voters reflected significant progress in national registration coverage, but also revealed important gaps in inclusion, data quality, diaspora enfranchisement, youth and women outreach, register inspection, inter-agency data sharing and system validation. The report recommends reforms to strengthen continuous voter registration, improve voter education, enhance register accuracy, support diaspora voting, integrate relevant government datasets and improve the long-term credibility of Kenya’s voter register.

19,611,423

Voter records analyzed

ELOG analyzed 19,611,423 voter records from the 2017 Register of Voters dated 28 June 2017.

2,280

People-to-List survey respondents

The People-to-List field survey used 2,280 respondents to verify voter registration information against the 2017 Register of Voters.

47

Counties covered

The VLA field survey drew respondents from all 47 counties in Kenya.

95%

Survey confidence level

The People-to-List survey was conducted at a 95% confidence level.

2%

Survey margin of error

The People-to-List survey had an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

77%

National voter registration rate - lower estimate

The assessment estimated the National Voter Registration Rate at between 77% and 78%.

78%

National voter registration rate - upper estimate

The upper estimate of the 2017 National Voter Registration Rate was 78%.

68%

2013 national registration rate

The 2017 registration rate represented an improvement from the 68% rate recorded in 2013.

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Findings

What the report found

Two-method assessment strengthened the credibility of the audit

ELOG combined computer logical tests with a People-to-List field survey.

The assessment used two complementary methods: logical computer analysis of the electronic Register of Voters and a statistically rigorous People-to-List survey. This allowed ELOG to assess both internal data quality and whether eligible citizens appeared in the register.

Positive • Pages xi-xii / Methodology

National voter registration improved from 2013

The 2017 National Voter Registration Rate ranged between 77% and 78%, up from 68% in 2013.

The report found that the National Voter Registration Rate during the 2017 General Elections ranged between 77% and 78%. This represented a 10 percentage-point improvement from the 68% registration rate recorded in 2013.

Positive • Executive Summary / National Voter Registration Rate

A significant eligible population remained unregistered

Approximately 22% to 23% of eligible citizens were not registered.

Despite improved registration coverage, the VLA found that approximately 22% to 23% of eligible and qualified citizens did not register as voters. The report linked this to factors such as voter apathy, public dissatisfaction and weak motivation to participate.

Concern • Executive Summary / National Voter Registration Rate

Diaspora voter registration remained very low

Only 4,393 diaspora voters were registered in 2017 across five countries.

Although diaspora voter registration increased from 2,637 in 2013 to 4,393 in 2017, coverage remained low compared to the estimated number of eligible Kenyan citizens living outside the country. ELOG identified legal, logistical, policy, census and voter education constraints.

Concern • Executive Summary / Diaspora Registration

Women were underrepresented in the register

Women made up 49.39% of registered voters despite being more numerous among eligible voters.

The report found that 50.61% of records in the 2017 Register of Voters were male and 49.39% were female. Despite female eligible voters being more than male eligible voters by about 2%, female registration was 5% lower than male registration.

Concern • Gender Registration Analysis

Twenty-one counties had more registered women than men

Out of 47 counties, 21 recorded more registered women than men.

The report notes that 21 counties had more registered women than men. This provides useful lessons for designing targeted strategies to improve women’s voter registration in counties where women remained underregistered.

Positive • Counties with More Registered Women than Men

Youth registration increased significantly

Youth registration rose to 83% in 2017 compared to 57% in 2013.

The report estimated youth eligible voters at 11,485,458, with 9,530,239 youth registered in 2017. This translated into an 83% youth registration rate, a significant improvement from 57% in 2013.

Positive • National Youth Registration Rate

Field survey achieved strong response rate

The People-to-List field survey achieved a 95% response rate.

The field survey response rate was 95%. ELOG noted that failure to conduct 5% of planned interviews did not significantly affect the findings, although poor weather, insecurity, hostile respondents and transport challenges affected fieldwork in some areas.

Positive • VLA Field Survey Response Rate

Data quality errors were present but not enough to nullify the register

ELOG concluded that errors existed but were not significant enough to warrant nullification.

ELOG concluded that the amount of errors in the 2017 Register of Voters was not very significant to warrant nullification of the register. However, ELOG recommended that IEBC should address the errors and show evidence before using the register in any referendum or election.

Watch • VLA Conclusions

Truncated polling station and name records were identified

The analysis identified 22,237 truncated polling station records and 1,203 truncated names.

The report found that 22,237 records had the polling station name variable truncated, while 1,203 records had truncated names. These errors were shared with IEBC for action.

Concern • Analysis of Errors in 2017 RoV

ID and passport number errors were detected

The report identified 2,186 records with clerical mistakes in ID or passport numbers.

ELOG found 2,186 records with clerical mistakes in ID or passport numbers, including use of non-numeric characters and use of the letter O instead of the number zero. Such errors could affect voter identification if biometrics failed.

Concern • Analysis of Clerical Mistakes in ID/Passport Field

Old year-of-birth entries pointed to clerical errors

The register contained 1,333 records with years of birth between 1800 and 1899.

The report found 1,333 records where the year of birth fell between 1800 and 1899. ELOG interpreted these as clerical mistakes during voter registration that could be avoided through stronger logical controls in the data capture system.

Concern • Date of Birth Analysis

Name fields lacked standardization

The report found inconsistent recording of names in primary and secondary name fields.

ELOG noted that there was no standard way of recording names in the primary and secondary name columns. Some records had more than one name in the primary name field, while others had missing or misaligned name entries.

Watch • Primary and Secondary Name Analysis

External data limitations affected full register validation

Lack of complete and accurate external data limited external consistency testing.

The report notes that the main limitation of the VLA was lack of complete and accurate external data. For example, ELOG was unable to obtain official registration data for Persons with Disabilities, making it impossible to determine registration rates for PWDs.

Watch • Limitations and Lessons Learnt
Incident Log

Recorded administrative incidents

Eligible citizens missing from the register

Location: National

The assessment found that approximately 22% to 23% of eligible and qualified citizens were not registered as voters.

Resolution: ELOG recommended targeted continuous voter education, adequate financing and reforms to strengthen national registration coverage.

Major • Registration Gap

Very low diaspora voter registration

Location: Diaspora

Only 4,393 diaspora voters were registered in 2017 across five countries, despite an estimated diaspora eligible population of approximately 2,521,506.

Resolution: ELOG recommended diaspora census data, diaspora representation, better policy, mobile polling centres and online diaspora voter education.

Major • Diaspora Enfranchisement

Women underrepresented in voter registration

Location: National

Women accounted for 49.39% of registered voters despite female eligible voters being more numerous than male eligible voters.

Resolution: ELOG recommended targeted voter education for women, community sensitization and stronger outreach through CSOs, FBOs and technology platforms.

Major • Gender Inclusion

Truncated polling station records

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The analysis identified 22,237 records where the polling station name variable was truncated.

Resolution: The list of affected records was shared with IEBC for investigation and correction.

Minor • Data Completeness

Truncated voter names

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The report identified 1,203 records whose names had been truncated.

Resolution: The list of affected records was shared with IEBC for action.

Minor • Data Completeness

Missing ID or passport number

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The analysis found one record missing an ID or passport number in the ID number field.

Resolution: ELOG recommended investigation and correction of records with wrong or missing identity information.

Minor • Identity Data

Clerical mistakes in ID or passport numbers

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The report identified 2,186 records with clerical mistakes in ID or passport numbers, including non-numeric characters and use of the letter O instead of numeric zero.

Resolution: ELOG recommended stronger BVR validation controls and comparison with NRB and Ministry of Foreign Affairs records.

Major • Identity Data

Improper ID or passport format

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

Some ID and passport number fields had improper formats, including lengths outside expected ranges.

Resolution: ELOG recommended that IEBC investigate all records with wrong ID or passport formats and build mechanisms for comparative validation.

Major • Identity Data

Old year-of-birth records

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The report found 1,333 records with years of birth between 1800 and 1899.

Resolution: ELOG recommended stronger logical controls in the data capture system to prevent such clerical errors.

Minor • Date of Birth Data

Numeric characters in voter names

Location: Register of Voters Dataset

The analysis found 4,734 records with numeric characters in the primary name field and 11,388 records with numeric characters in the secondary name field.

Resolution: ELOG recommended improved BVR data capture validation to detect and prevent such errors at the point of registration.

Minor • Name Data Quality

Difficulty removing deceased voters

Location: National Register

ELOG noted challenges faced by IEBC in deleting deceased voters from the register, partly due to weaknesses in external data sharing and death registration systems.

Resolution: ELOG recommended a policy on removal of dead voters, better collaboration with relevant agencies and improved death registration data.

Major • Register Cleaning

Incomplete external data for validation

Location: National

ELOG was limited by lack of complete and accurate external data, including official PWD registration data and other datasets needed for full external consistency checks.

Resolution: ELOG recommended stronger inter-agency data sharing and integrated citizen registration systems.

Major • External Consistency Testing
Recommendations

Reform areas for future LSK elections

Provide targeted continuous civic and voter education

IEBC should partner with relevant stakeholders to provide targeted continuous civic and voter education to citizens throughout the electoral cycle in order to address voter apathy and improve registration coverage.

Target: IEBC, CSOs, FBOs and Electoral Stakeholders

High priority • Pages 89-90

Review diaspora voting policy

The diaspora policy should take into account the context in which citizens in the diaspora operate and should inform diaspora voter registration and voting procedures.

Target: IEBC, Parliament, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

High priority • Page 89

Use diaspora census data for registration planning

Once diaspora census data is available, IEBC should use it to establish temporary or mobile polling centres in countries or locations with high concentrations of Kenyan citizens.

Target: IEBC, MFA, KNBS

High priority • Pages 89, 92-93

Develop online platforms for diaspora voter education

IEBC should strengthen collaboration with electoral stakeholders to develop effective and efficient online platforms for diaspora voter education.

Target: IEBC and Electoral Stakeholders

Medium priority • Page 89

Implement targeted voter education for women

IEBC should work with CSOs, FBOs and other credible organizations to implement targeted voter education for women and to address social, cultural and information barriers affecting women’s registration.

Target: IEBC, CSOs, FBOs and Political Parties

High priority • Page 89

Use technology and infotainment to reach young women voters

IEBC should continue and strengthen the use of platforms such as social media and infotainment strategies to reach young women voters with voter education messages.

Target: IEBC

Medium priority • Page 89

Implement youth-friendly outreach strategies

IEBC and stakeholders should implement youth-friendly outreach strategies, including interactive online tools, blogs, social media, infotainment and edutainment voter education.

Target: IEBC, CSOs and Youth Organizations

High priority • Pages 89-90

Locate registration centres in institutions of learning

IEBC should continue locating registration centres in institutions of learning such as universities and colleges in order to reach young eligible voters.

Target: IEBC

Medium priority • Page 90

Ensure registration centres are accessible to PWDs

IEBC should ensure that registration centres are accessible to all eligible voters, especially Persons with Disabilities, and should capture comprehensive PWD data including type of disability for planning and budgeting.

Target: IEBC

High priority • Page 90

Plan BVR kit movement clearly

There should be a clear plan for BVR kit movement within constituencies, wards, churches and mosques to ensure that a majority of eligible voters are facilitated to register.

Target: IEBC

Medium priority • Page 90

Clarify use of expired passports

The Elections Act and Elections General Regulations should be amended to clearly provide that one cannot vote using an expired passport.

Target: Parliament and IEBC

Medium priority • Page 90

Configure BVR systems to detect passport expiry

Electoral technology, especially BVR systems, should be configured to detect passport expiry dates during voter identification processes.

Target: IEBC

High priority • Page 90

Enhance register inspection and feedback

IEBC should continue availing the voters’ register at polling centres and enhance voter education on the importance of register inspection, including feedback on whether issues raised have been addressed.

Target: IEBC

High priority • Page 90

Investigate records with wrong ID or passport format

IEBC should investigate all records that have wrong ID or passport formats and correct them before the register is used in future electoral processes.

Target: IEBC

High priority • Pages 90-91

Compare BVR identity data with NRB and MFA records

IEBC should build mechanisms for comparative analysis of ID and passport numbers captured by BVR kits against official data held by the National Registration Bureau and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Target: IEBC, NRB, MFA

High priority • Page 91

Build stronger validation controls into BVR data capture

IEBC should build validation controls into the BVR data capture system to detect wrong entries, including names entered in ID fields and potential double or multiple registration at the point of data capture.

Target: IEBC

High priority • Page 91

Enhance biometric voter identification

IEBC should enhance the use of biometrics to identify voters during voting, including use of any biometric features captured during voter registration.

Target: IEBC

Medium priority • Pages 88, 91

Develop a policy for removing deceased voters

IEBC, in collaboration with electoral actors, should develop a policy to guide the removal of deceased voters from the Register of Voters and document challenges encountered in cleaning the register.

Target: IEBC, Registrar of Births and Deaths, Electoral Stakeholders

High priority • Page 91

Simplify and speed up ID acquisition

The National Registration Bureau should simplify and shorten the time required to acquire ID cards and establish mechanisms to notify applicants when cards are ready for collection.

Target: National Registration Bureau

High priority • Page 91

Strengthen birth and death registration systems

The Registrar of Births and Deaths should strengthen registration processes and ensure accurate and up-to-date lists of deaths and births are available, including online verification and public feedback mechanisms.

Target: Registrar of Births and Deaths

High priority • Pages 91-92

Amend the Constitution to integrate civil and voter registration

Parliament should amend the Constitution either to provide for integration of civil and voter registration processes or mandatory voter registration for all eligible voters to help realize 100% registration rates.

Target: Parliament

High priority • Page 92

Avoid electoral legal reforms during election year

Legal framework changes should not be done during the electoral year. Clear timelines should be provided for legal reforms, including election-related litigation.

Target: Parliament and Electoral Reform Actors

Medium priority • Page 92