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ELOG PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS DASHBOARD
Election Observation Group · Kenya
Election Results, Trends, Strongholds & Repeat Election Analysis
A modern election intelligence dashboard for county-level trends across 2013, 2017 August, 2017 October repeat, and 2022 presidential results.
Registered Voters22,110,015
Votes Cast14,320,719
Valid Votes14,207,149
Rejected Ballots113,570
Average Turnout66.32%
County Rows47
Candidate Totals
National totals aggregated from county records for the selected election.
Election Results Map
Interactive county map placeholder for winner, turnout, margin, and repeat-election shock analysis.
The map now plots county markers using county centroids. Hover or click a marker to see county-level winner, turnout, valid votes, margin, and candidate breakdown.
County Results Table
County-level summary for the selected election.
| County | Registered | Valid Votes | Turnout | Winner | Winner Votes | Runner-up | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mombasa | 642,362 | 277,301 | 43.76% | Raila Odinga | 161,015 | William Ruto | 47,315 |
| Kwale | 328,316 | 179,009 | 54.94% | Raila Odinga | 125,541 | William Ruto | 73,623 |
| Kilifi | 588,842 | 285,496 | 49.03% | Raila Odinga | 204,536 | William Ruto | 127,205 |
| Tana River | 141,110 | 93,505 | 67.02% | Raila Odinga | 51,390 | William Ruto | 9,885 |
| Lamu | 81,468 | 50,070 | 62.55% | Raila Odinga | 26,160 | William Ruto | 3,284 |
| Taita Taveta | 182,126 | 111,494 | 61.77% | Raila Odinga | 81,271 | William Ruto | 52,123 |
| Garissa | 201,513 | 109,960 | 54.86% | Raila Odinga | 81,376 | William Ruto | 53,265 |
| Wajir | 207,767 | 133,391 | 64.69% | Raila Odinga | 83,486 | William Ruto | 34,424 |
| Mandera | 217,034 | 135,565 | 62.85% | Raila Odinga | 106,279 | William Ruto | 77,928 |
| Marsabit | 166,944 | 114,904 | 69.12% | William Ruto | 58,782 | Raila Odinga | 3,107 |
| Isiolo | 89,535 | 58,978 | 66.47% | William Ruto | 32,302 | Raila Odinga | 5,853 |
| Meru | 772,573 | 506,476 | 66.18% | William Ruto | 398,946 | Raila Odinga | 295,267 |
| Tharaka-Nithi | 231,966 | 161,578 | 70.08% | William Ruto | 145,081 | Raila Odinga | 130,019 |
| Embu | 334,684 | 221,048 | 66.61% | William Ruto | 187,981 | Raila Odinga | 156,772 |
| Kitui | 532,833 | 329,073 | 62.38% | Raila Odinga | 235,402 | William Ruto | 145,983 |
| Machakos | 687,691 | 410,238 | 60.20% | Raila Odinga | 304,809 | William Ruto | 203,353 |
| Makueni | 479,516 | 290,819 | 61.05% | Raila Odinga | 229,213 | William Ruto | 170,018 |
| Nyandarua | 361,217 | 240,616 | 67.06% | William Ruto | 189,519 | Raila Odinga | 140,291 |
| Nyeri | 482,000 | 326,880 | 68.29% | William Ruto | 272,507 | Raila Odinga | 220,455 |
| Kirinyaga | 376,137 | 260,900 | 69.85% | William Ruto | 220,984 | Raila Odinga | 183,075 |
| Murang'a | 621,027 | 420,343 | 68.10% | William Ruto | 343,349 | Raila Odinga | 269,823 |
| Kiambu | 1,275,168 | 825,191 | 65.15% | William Ruto | 606,429 | Raila Odinga | 395,849 |
| Turkana | 238,554 | 143,532 | 60.63% | Raila Odinga | 96,117 | William Ruto | 49,421 |
| West Pokot | 220,042 | 173,705 | 79.51% | William Ruto | 109,944 | Raila Odinga | 46,852 |
| Samburu | 100,052 | 70,348 | 70.65% | Raila Odinga | 41,737 | William Ruto | 13,408 |
| Trans Nzoia | 399,230 | 250,513 | 63.37% | Raila Odinga | 132,440 | William Ruto | 15,664 |
| Uasin Gishu | 506,317 | 349,863 | 69.51% | William Ruto | 272,868 | Raila Odinga | 196,859 |
| Elgeyo-Marakwet | 213,904 | 165,224 | 77.96% | William Ruto | 160,033 | Raila Odinga | 155,140 |
| Nandi | 406,393 | 307,575 | 76.05% | William Ruto | 280,813 | Raila Odinga | 254,779 |
| Baringo | 281,107 | 217,091 | 77.59% | William Ruto | 175,170 | Raila Odinga | 133,943 |
| Laikipia | 263,273 | 169,084 | 64.73% | William Ruto | 119,142 | Raila Odinga | 70,234 |
| Nakuru | 1,055,515 | 686,170 | 65.53% | William Ruto | 455,864 | Raila Odinga | 229,812 |
| Narok | 398,852 | 308,432 | 77.73% | Raila Odinga | 159,455 | William Ruto | 11,145 |
| Kajiado | 463,389 | 308,624 | 66.96% | Raila Odinga | 158,556 | William Ruto | 10,107 |
| Kericho | 428,126 | 334,516 | 78.56% | William Ruto | 318,861 | Raila Odinga | 303,808 |
| Bomet | 377,023 | 299,606 | 79.88% | William Ruto | 285,428 | Raila Odinga | 272,045 |
| Kakamega | 844,709 | 503,719 | 60.29% | Raila Odinga | 357,857 | William Ruto | 216,691 |
| Vihiga | 310,063 | 184,333 | 60.13% | Raila Odinga | 114,714 | William Ruto | 47,081 |
| Bungoma | 646,612 | 405,151 | 63.51% | William Ruto | 255,906 | Raila Odinga | 110,626 |
| Busia | 416,818 | 276,730 | 67.08% | Raila Odinga | 226,042 | William Ruto | 177,241 |
| Siaya | 533,602 | 376,354 | 70.89% | Raila Odinga | 371,092 | William Ruto | 366,772 |
| Kisumu | 607,496 | 431,005 | 71.37% | Raila Odinga | 419,997 | William Ruto | 409,986 |
| Homa Bay | 551,111 | 404,112 | 73.70% | Raila Odinga | 399,784 | William Ruto | 396,287 |
| Migori | 469,053 | 347,773 | 74.49% | Raila Odinga | 294,136 | William Ruto | 241,611 |
| Kisii | 637,111 | 402,836 | 63.92% | Raila Odinga | 265,078 | William Ruto | 129,752 |
| Nyamira | 323,283 | 208,651 | 65.16% | Raila Odinga | 129,025 | William Ruto | 50,669 |
| Nairobi City | 2,416,551 | 1,339,367 | 55.96% | Raila Odinga | 767,395 | William Ruto | 205,620 |
County Comparison Studio
Compare turnout, winners, and margin patterns for Nairobi City.
CountyNairobi City
Election Apres_2013
Election Bpres_2022
Result Rows2
2013 Presidential Election
General Election
Registered1,728,801
Valid Votes1,398,476
Turnout81.60%
WinnerRaila Odinga
Winner Votes691,156
Runner-upUhuru Kenyatta
Margin Votes31,666
Margin Share2.26%
2022 Presidential Election
General Election
Registered2,416,551
Valid Votes1,339,367
Turnout55.96%
WinnerRaila Odinga
Winner Votes767,395
Runner-upWilliam Ruto
Margin Votes205,620
Margin Share15.36%
Candidate Comparison
County candidate results for the two selected elections.
| Election | Candidate | Votes | Vote Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 Presidential Election | Uhuru Kenyatta | 659,490 | 47.16% |
| 2013 Presidential Election | Raila Odinga | 691,156 | 49.42% |
| 2013 Presidential Election | Musalia Mudavadi | 22,061 | 1.58% |
| 2013 Presidential Election | Other Candidates | 25,769 | 1.84% |
| 2022 Presidential Election | William Ruto | 561,775 | 41.94% |
| 2022 Presidential Election | Raila Odinga | 767,395 | 57.30% |
| 2022 Presidential Election | George Wajackoyah | 5,807 | 0.43% |
| 2022 Presidential Election | David Waihiga Mwaure | 4,390 | 0.33% |
Presidential Historical Trends: 2013–2022
This view hosts the stronger long-term story: strongholds retained, counties that flipped, turnout decline, mobilisation risk, and battleground counties across the 2013, 2017 and 2022 presidential elections.
Counties Analysed47
Secure Strongholds0
Weakening Strongholds34
Flipped in 20224
Battleground Counties9
Avg Turnout Change-19.68%
Biggest Turnout Drops
Counties ranked by turnout change from 2013 to 2022. Negative values show declining mobilisation.
Nyandarua
-26.60%
High mobilisation risk
Nairobi City
-25.64%
High mobilisation risk
Kiambu
-25.56%
High mobilisation risk
Laikipia
-25.47%
High mobilisation risk
Murang'a
-25.45%
High mobilisation risk
Garissa
-24.91%
High mobilisation risk
Nyeri
-24.59%
High mobilisation risk
Makueni
-23.53%
High mobilisation risk
Machakos
-23.40%
High mobilisation risk
Kakamega
-23.38%
High mobilisation risk
County Flips & Battlegrounds
Counties that changed side, recovered after a previous shift, or had a narrow-margin election moment.
Tana River
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Lamu
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Garissa
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Wajir
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Mandera
Uhuru Kenyatta → Raila Odinga
Flipped in 2022
Marsabit
Raila Odinga → William Ruto
Battleground / Narrow margin
Isiolo
Uhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
Battleground / Narrow margin
Samburu
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Narok
Raila Odinga → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Kajiado
Uhuru Kenyatta → Raila Odinga
Flipped in 2022
Vihiga
Musalia Mudavadi → Raila Odinga
Battleground / Narrow margin
Bungoma
Raila Odinga → William Ruto
Flipped in 2022
Stronghold, Lost Ground & Turnout Story Table
Full county trend table combining winners, turnout, margins, registered voter growth and an automatic classification.
| County | 2013 Winner | 2017 Winner | 2022 Winner | 2013 Turnout | 2017 Turnout | 2022 Turnout | Turnout Change | Registered Growth | 2022 Margin | Classification | Turnout Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mombasa | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 66.62% | 58.95% | 43.76% | -22.86% | 233,615 (57.15%) | 47,315 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kwale | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 72.00% | 65.75% | 54.94% | -17.06% | 153,873 (88.21%) | 73,623 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kilifi | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 64.91% | 64.51% | 49.03% | -15.88% | 252,710 (75.18%) | 127,205 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Tana River | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 81.29% | 73.90% | 67.02% | -14.27% | 61,656 (77.60%) | 9,885 | Battleground / Narrow margin | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Lamu | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 84.38% | 70.96% | 62.55% | -21.83% | 29,122 (55.63%) | 3,284 | Battleground / Narrow margin | High mobilisation risk |
| Taita Taveta | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 81.11% | 72.27% | 61.77% | -19.34% | 68,264 (59.95%) | 52,123 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Garissa | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 79.77% | 69.49% | 54.86% | -24.91% | 86,311 (74.92%) | 53,265 | Battleground / Narrow margin | High mobilisation risk |
| Wajir | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 84.88% | 73.37% | 64.69% | -20.19% | 89,676 (75.94%) | 34,424 | Battleground / Narrow margin | High mobilisation risk |
| Mandera | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 84.14% | 77.80% | 62.85% | -21.29% | 96,266 (79.71%) | 77,928 | Flipped in 2022 | High mobilisation risk |
| Marsabit | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 85.92% | 78.20% | 69.12% | -16.80% | 62,329 (59.58%) | 3,107 | Battleground / Narrow margin | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Isiolo | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 87.49% | 71.94% | 66.47% | -21.02% | 35,073 (64.40%) | 5,853 | Battleground / Narrow margin | High mobilisation risk |
| Meru | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 88.21% | 77.38% | 66.18% | -22.03% | 285,308 (58.55%) | 295,267 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Tharaka-Nithi | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 89.39% | 81.97% | 70.08% | -19.31% | 76,479 (49.19%) | 130,019 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Embu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 87.84% | 81.48% | 66.61% | -21.23% | 107,398 (47.25%) | 156,772 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kitui | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 85.04% | 75.73% | 62.38% | -22.66% | 208,160 (64.11%) | 145,983 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Machakos | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 83.60% | 75.95% | 60.20% | -23.40% | 242,595 (54.50%) | 203,353 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Makueni | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 84.58% | 78.54% | 61.05% | -23.53% | 181,295 (60.79%) | 170,018 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nyandarua | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 93.66% | 86.25% | 67.06% | -26.60% | 105,233 (41.11%) | 140,291 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nyeri | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 92.88% | 86.34% | 68.29% | -24.59% | 125,620 (35.25%) | 220,455 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kirinyaga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 91.09% | 86.11% | 69.85% | -21.24% | 110,847 (41.78%) | 183,075 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Murang'a | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 93.55% | 86.66% | 68.10% | -25.45% | 168,186 (37.14%) | 269,823 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kiambu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 90.71% | 83.44% | 65.15% | -25.56% | 413,340 (47.96%) | 395,849 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Turkana | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 76.22% | 68.86% | 60.63% | -15.59% | 105,669 (79.52%) | 49,421 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| West Pokot | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 89.91% | 83.66% | 79.51% | -10.40% | 99,056 (81.87%) | 46,852 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Samburu | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 88.28% | 77.29% | 70.65% | -17.63% | 38,938 (63.71%) | 13,408 | Battleground / Narrow margin | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Trans Nzoia | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 81.73% | 72.92% | 63.37% | -18.36% | 154,590 (63.19%) | 15,664 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Uasin Gishu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 86.12% | 75.97% | 69.51% | -16.61% | 175,699 (53.14%) | 196,859 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Elgeyo-Marakwet | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 91.75% | 81.14% | 77.96% | -13.79% | 79,336 (58.96%) | 155,140 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Nandi | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 89.74% | 78.49% | 76.05% | -13.69% | 143,139 (54.37%) | 254,779 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Baringo | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 90.70% | 82.00% | 77.59% | -13.11% | 107,454 (61.88%) | 133,943 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Laikipia | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 90.20% | 80.96% | 64.73% | -25.47% | 89,368 (51.39%) | 70,234 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nakuru | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 88.64% | 79.46% | 65.53% | -23.11% | 360,196 (51.80%) | 229,812 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Narok | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 89.79% | 82.58% | 77.73% | -12.06% | 136,113 (51.81%) | 11,145 | Battleground / Narrow margin | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kajiado | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 87.13% | 79.35% | 66.96% | -20.17% | 159,043 (52.26%) | 10,107 | Flipped in 2022 | High mobilisation risk |
| Kericho | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 90.51% | 80.78% | 78.56% | -11.95% | 137,668 (47.40%) | 303,808 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Bomet | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | 89.99% | 81.94% | 79.88% | -10.11% | 124,665 (49.40%) | 272,045 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kakamega | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 83.67% | 74.70% | 60.29% | -23.38% | 277,249 (48.86%) | 216,691 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Vihiga | Musalia Mudavadi | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 82.62% | 74.48% | 60.13% | -22.49% | 107,241 (52.87%) | 47,081 | Battleground / Narrow margin | High mobilisation risk |
| Bungoma | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | William Ruto | 85.51% | 75.36% | 63.51% | -22.00% | 236,150 (57.53%) | 110,626 | Flipped in 2022 | High mobilisation risk |
| Busia | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 87.92% | 78.89% | 67.08% | -20.84% | 165,513 (65.86%) | 177,241 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Siaya | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 92.47% | 82.98% | 70.89% | -21.58% | 221,683 (71.07%) | 366,772 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kisumu | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 90.45% | 81.49% | 71.37% | -19.08% | 221,676 (57.46%) | 409,986 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Homa Bay | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 94.14% | 84.47% | 73.70% | -20.44% | 225,285 (69.14%) | 396,287 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Migori | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 92.02% | 82.89% | 74.49% | -17.53% | 185,191 (65.24%) | 241,611 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kisii | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 84.43% | 74.26% | 63.92% | -20.51% | 224,166 (54.28%) | 129,752 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nyamira | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | 83.66% | 73.61% | 65.16% | -18.50% | 103,925 (47.38%) | 50,669 | Flipped in 2022 | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Nairobi City | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | 81.60% | 72.66% | 55.96% | -25.64% | 687,750 (39.78%) | 205,620 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
Strongholds & Lost Ground
This experience separates counties that remained secure from counties where the winning side still held the county but lost mobilisation strength through turnout decline.
Stronghold Classification
Secure and weakening strongholds across the three elections.
NyandaruaWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
Nairobi CityWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
KiambuWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
LaikipiaWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
Murang'aWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
NyeriWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
MakueniWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
MachakosWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
KakamegaWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
NakuruWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
MombasaWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
KituiWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
MeruWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
SiayaWeakening StrongholdRaila Odinga → Raila Odinga
KirinyagaWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
EmbuWeakening StrongholdUhuru Kenyatta → William Ruto
Lost Ground / Mobilisation Warning
Counties ranked by turnout loss from 2013 to 2022.
Nyandarua-26.60%High mobilisation risk
Nairobi City-25.64%High mobilisation risk
Kiambu-25.56%High mobilisation risk
Laikipia-25.47%High mobilisation risk
Murang'a-25.45%High mobilisation risk
Garissa-24.91%High mobilisation risk
Nyeri-24.59%High mobilisation risk
Makueni-23.53%High mobilisation risk
Machakos-23.40%High mobilisation risk
Kakamega-23.38%High mobilisation risk
Nakuru-23.11%High mobilisation risk
Mombasa-22.86%High mobilisation risk
Kitui-22.66%High mobilisation risk
Vihiga-22.49%High mobilisation risk
Meru-22.03%High mobilisation risk
Bungoma-22.00%High mobilisation risk
Strongholds and Lost Ground Table
County-by-county classification for long-term political alignment and mobilisation decline.
| County | 2013 Winner | 2017 Winner | 2022 Winner | Turnout Change | 2022 Margin | Classification | Turnout Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyandarua | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -26.60% | 140,291 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nairobi City | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -25.64% | 205,620 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kiambu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -25.56% | 395,849 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Laikipia | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -25.47% | 70,234 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Murang'a | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -25.45% | 269,823 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nyeri | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -24.59% | 220,455 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Makueni | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -23.53% | 170,018 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Machakos | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -23.40% | 203,353 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kakamega | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -23.38% | 216,691 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Nakuru | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -23.11% | 229,812 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Mombasa | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -22.86% | 47,315 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kitui | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -22.66% | 145,983 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Meru | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -22.03% | 295,267 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Siaya | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -21.58% | 366,772 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kirinyaga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -21.24% | 183,075 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Embu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -21.23% | 156,772 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Busia | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -20.84% | 177,241 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Kisii | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -20.51% | 129,752 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Homa Bay | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -20.44% | 396,287 | Weakening Stronghold | High mobilisation risk |
| Taita Taveta | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -19.34% | 52,123 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Tharaka-Nithi | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -19.31% | 130,019 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kisumu | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -19.08% | 409,986 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Trans Nzoia | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -18.36% | 15,664 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Migori | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -17.53% | 241,611 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kwale | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -17.06% | 73,623 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Uasin Gishu | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -16.61% | 196,859 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kilifi | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -15.88% | 127,205 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Turkana | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | -15.59% | 49,421 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Elgeyo-Marakwet | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -13.79% | 155,140 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Nandi | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -13.69% | 254,779 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Baringo | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -13.11% | 133,943 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Kericho | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -11.95% | 303,808 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| West Pokot | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -10.40% | 46,852 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
| Bomet | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto | -10.11% | 272,045 | Weakening Stronghold | Moderate mobilisation risk |
Turnout Story
This view isolates the mobilisation story: where participation declined, where it stayed resilient, and which counties need closer interpretation ahead of future elections.
Avg Turnout Change-19.68%
High Risk Counties27
Counties Analysed47
FocusMobilisation
Turnout Change Ranking
Negative values show turnout decline from 2013 to 2022.
| County | 2013 | 2017 | 2022 | Change | Risk | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyandarua | 93.66% | 86.25% | 67.06% | -26.60% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Nairobi City | 81.60% | 72.66% | 55.96% | -25.64% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kiambu | 90.71% | 83.44% | 65.15% | -25.56% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Laikipia | 90.20% | 80.96% | 64.73% | -25.47% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Murang'a | 93.55% | 86.66% | 68.10% | -25.45% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Garissa | 79.77% | 69.49% | 54.86% | -24.91% | High mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Nyeri | 92.88% | 86.34% | 68.29% | -24.59% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Makueni | 84.58% | 78.54% | 61.05% | -23.53% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Machakos | 83.60% | 75.95% | 60.20% | -23.40% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kakamega | 83.67% | 74.70% | 60.29% | -23.38% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Nakuru | 88.64% | 79.46% | 65.53% | -23.11% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Mombasa | 66.62% | 58.95% | 43.76% | -22.86% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kitui | 85.04% | 75.73% | 62.38% | -22.66% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Vihiga | 82.62% | 74.48% | 60.13% | -22.49% | High mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Meru | 88.21% | 77.38% | 66.18% | -22.03% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Bungoma | 85.51% | 75.36% | 63.51% | -22.00% | High mobilisation risk | Flipped in 2022 |
| Lamu | 84.38% | 70.96% | 62.55% | -21.83% | High mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Siaya | 92.47% | 82.98% | 70.89% | -21.58% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Mandera | 84.14% | 77.80% | 62.85% | -21.29% | High mobilisation risk | Flipped in 2022 |
| Kirinyaga | 91.09% | 86.11% | 69.85% | -21.24% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Embu | 87.84% | 81.48% | 66.61% | -21.23% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Isiolo | 87.49% | 71.94% | 66.47% | -21.02% | High mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Busia | 87.92% | 78.89% | 67.08% | -20.84% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kisii | 84.43% | 74.26% | 63.92% | -20.51% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Homa Bay | 94.14% | 84.47% | 73.70% | -20.44% | High mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Wajir | 84.88% | 73.37% | 64.69% | -20.19% | High mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Kajiado | 87.13% | 79.35% | 66.96% | -20.17% | High mobilisation risk | Flipped in 2022 |
| Taita Taveta | 81.11% | 72.27% | 61.77% | -19.34% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Tharaka-Nithi | 89.39% | 81.97% | 70.08% | -19.31% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kisumu | 90.45% | 81.49% | 71.37% | -19.08% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Nyamira | 83.66% | 73.61% | 65.16% | -18.50% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Flipped in 2022 |
| Trans Nzoia | 81.73% | 72.92% | 63.37% | -18.36% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Samburu | 88.28% | 77.29% | 70.65% | -17.63% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Migori | 92.02% | 82.89% | 74.49% | -17.53% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kwale | 72.00% | 65.75% | 54.94% | -17.06% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Marsabit | 85.92% | 78.20% | 69.12% | -16.80% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Uasin Gishu | 86.12% | 75.97% | 69.51% | -16.61% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Kilifi | 64.91% | 64.51% | 49.03% | -15.88% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Turkana | 76.22% | 68.86% | 60.63% | -15.59% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Tana River | 81.29% | 73.90% | 67.02% | -14.27% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Elgeyo-Marakwet | 91.75% | 81.14% | 77.96% | -13.79% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Nandi | 89.74% | 78.49% | 76.05% | -13.69% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Baringo | 90.70% | 82.00% | 77.59% | -13.11% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Narok | 89.79% | 82.58% | 77.73% | -12.06% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Battleground / Narrow margin |
| Kericho | 90.51% | 80.78% | 78.56% | -11.95% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| West Pokot | 89.91% | 83.66% | 79.51% | -10.40% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
| Bomet | 89.99% | 81.94% | 79.88% | -10.11% | Moderate mobilisation risk | Weakening Stronghold |
County Flips
This view highlights counties where the winning political side shifted, recovered after a shift, or remained mixed and competitive over the three elections.
Flip and Realignment Table
Winner movement from 2013 to 2017 to 2022.
| County | 2013 Winner | 2017 Winner | 2022 Winner | 2013 Side | 2017 Side | 2022 Side | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bungoma | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | William Ruto | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Flipped in 2022 |
| Kajiado | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Flipped in 2022 |
| Mandera | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Flipped in 2022 |
| Nyamira | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Uhuru-Ruto / Kenya Kwanza side | Raila / Azimio-ODM side | Flipped in 2022 |
Battleground Counties
This view isolates narrow-margin counties and competitive counties that require closer political and voter mobilisation analysis.
Narrow Margin Table
Counties classified as battlegrounds based on narrow margins across the historical election sequence.
| County | Minimum Margin | 2013 Margin | 2017 Margin | 2022 Margin | 2013 Winner | 2017 Winner | 2022 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samburu | 131 | 9,001 | 131 | 13,408 | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga |
| Garissa | 427 | 3,052 | 427 | 53,265 | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga |
| Lamu | 516 | 5,285 | 516 | 3,284 | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga |
| Marsabit | 1,437 | 1,437 | 76,693 | 3,107 | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto |
| Vihiga | 4,601 | 4,601 | 160,865 | 47,081 | Musalia Mudavadi | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga |
| Tana River | 4,952 | 17,247 | 4,952 | 9,885 | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga | Raila Odinga |
| Isiolo | 5,853 | 12,293 | 7,815 | 5,853 | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | William Ruto |
| Wajir | 8,146 | 10,785 | 8,146 | 34,424 | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga |
| Narok | 9,210 | 9,210 | 20,016 | 11,145 | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | Raila Odinga |
Counties in Repeat View47
Collapse Flags9
Low Participation Flags14
Primary FocusAug vs Oct 2017
Repeat Election Note
This section highlights turnout shock, county participation changes, and result shifts between the August and October 2017 presidential election moments.
Use this section to surface the core story: where turnout collapsed, where participation was low or disrupted, and how county-level winner patterns changed during the repeat election context.
Largest Turnout Declines
Counties ranked by sharpest change between August and October 2017.
Homa Bay
-84.47%
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Siaya
-82.98%
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Kisumu
-81.32%
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Migori
-74.25%
Collapse
Makueni
-73.90%
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Busia
-72.11%
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Vihiga
-70.50%
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Kakamega
-68.69%
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Repeat Election County Table
County-by-county August versus October 2017 comparison.
| County | Turnout Aug | Turnout Oct | Turnout Change | Winner Aug | Winner Oct | Status Oct | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homa Bay | 84.47% | 0.00% | -84.47% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Siaya | 82.98% | 0.00% | -82.98% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Kisumu | 81.49% | 0.17% | -81.32% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Migori | 82.89% | 8.64% | -74.25% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Makueni | 78.54% | 4.64% | -73.90% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Busia | 78.89% | 6.78% | -72.11% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Vihiga | 74.48% | 3.98% | -70.50% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Kakamega | 74.70% | 6.01% | -68.69% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Kitui | 75.73% | 10.70% | -65.03% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Machakos | 75.95% | 10.93% | -65.02% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Mandera | 77.80% | 14.16% | -63.64% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Bungoma | 75.36% | 18.16% | -57.20% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Kilifi | 64.51% | 8.37% | -56.14% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Collapse |
| Taita Taveta | 72.27% | 16.73% | -55.54% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Wajir | 73.37% | 19.37% | -54.00% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Kwale | 65.75% | 11.86% | -53.89% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Tana River | 73.90% | 22.17% | -51.73% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Kisii | 74.26% | 26.50% | -47.76% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Marsabit | 78.20% | 32.17% | -46.03% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Garissa | 69.49% | 23.75% | -45.74% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Turkana | 68.86% | 23.77% | -45.09% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Isiolo | 71.94% | 26.87% | -45.07% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Mombasa | 58.95% | 13.94% | -45.01% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Narok | 82.58% | 37.87% | -44.71% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Trans Nzoia | 72.92% | 28.53% | -44.39% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Low Participation |
| Samburu | 77.29% | 35.24% | -42.05% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nyamira | 73.61% | 32.10% | -41.51% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| West Pokot | 83.66% | 44.07% | -39.59% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Kajiado | 79.35% | 41.83% | -37.52% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Lamu | 70.96% | 33.60% | -37.36% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nairobi City | 72.66% | 35.49% | -37.17% | Raila Odinga | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Uasin Gishu | 75.97% | 59.78% | -16.19% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Baringo | 82.00% | 65.85% | -16.15% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Tharaka-Nithi | 81.97% | 67.55% | -14.42% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Meru | 77.38% | 63.70% | -13.68% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nandi | 78.49% | 66.96% | -11.53% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Bomet | 81.94% | 70.66% | -11.28% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Embu | 81.48% | 70.65% | -10.83% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Laikipia | 80.96% | 70.41% | -10.55% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nakuru | 79.46% | 69.24% | -10.22% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Elgeyo-Marakwet | 81.14% | 70.98% | -10.16% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Kericho | 80.78% | 73.17% | -7.61% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Kiambu | 83.44% | 78.81% | -4.63% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nyandarua | 86.25% | 83.81% | -2.44% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Nyeri | 86.34% | 84.23% | -2.11% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Kirinyaga | 86.11% | 84.36% | -1.75% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |
| Murang'a | 86.66% | 85.17% | -1.49% | Uhuru Kenyatta | Uhuru Kenyatta | disrupted | Normal Participation |